Last Updated on September 10, 2026 by Deon
USD/JPY is above 153.50 as bears are still active
The USD/JPY pair is above the 153.50 level as markets get ready for US inflation data. Even though it is above this level the pair is still under selling pressure, which keeps the overall short-term outlook pointing downward.
The US Dollar is still sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations. The Japanese Yen is also getting attention as traders look at what the Bank of Japan might do. This mix could keep USD/JPY moving around technical levels.
US Inflation Data is the focus
The next big thing that could affect USD/JPY is the latest US inflation data. These numbers could influence what people think the Federal Reserve will do. This could create movement in the foreign exchange market.
If the inflation numbers are higher than expected that could help the US Dollar by making people think the Federal Reserve will not ease policy as much.. If the numbers are lower that could mean lower US interest rates and more pressure on USD/JPY.
Traders should pay attention to the US Dollar Index, Treasury yields and overall market sentiment along with the inflation numbers.
USD/JPY Technical View
Looking at the side USD/JPY is still at risk while the pair has trouble staying above nearby resistance. The 153.50 area is a short-term level. If the pair stays above that it could bring some calm and let buyers test higher levels. If it drops below that area it could strengthen the bearish situation and make the pair fall more.
The 154.00 level could be a psychological resistance. If the pair stays above that it could make the term bearish outlook weaker.. If it keeps failing near that area sellers will stay interested.
Key Levels to Watch
Level Importance
154.00 resistance
153.50 Key short-term support
Below 153.50 Possible bearish continuation
Above 154.00 Possible recovery signal
These levels should be watched carefully after the US inflation data comes out because volatility can jump a lot around major economic data.
Japanese Yen is also getting attention
The Japanese Yen is still being affected by what people think the Bank of Japan will do. Any change in what traders expect for policy tightening could influence USD/JPY.
A stronger Yen usually makes the currency pair go lower while a weaker Yen could help USD/JPY go up. So traders are watching both US monetary policy expectations and Japanese policy signals.
What could happen next?
The immediate direction of USD/JPY will probably depend on how the US inflation data and the price action in the market interact.
If the US inflation is higher than expected the Dollar could get support and USD/JPY might try to go up toward the 154.00 level.. If the inflation is lower and US yields go down the pair might have trouble staying above 153.50. A clear drop below 153.50 would make the chance of losses higher and make the current bearish attitude stronger.
Key Points
USD/JPY is above 153.50 before the US inflation data.
The term technical view is still bearish.
The 153.50 level is important for what happens
Resistance near 154.00 might stop any recovery attempts.
US inflation data could cause movement for the Dollar.
Expectations about the Bank of Japan are still important for the Yen.
USD/JPY is still under pressure even though it is above 153.50. The bearish trend could continue if the price drops below that support area. At the time a clear move above 154.00 could signal a better recovery.
For now traders will probably focus on US inflation data and changes in what people expect about Federal Reserve rates. The way the pair moves around 153.50 and 154.00 could show signs, about where it is going next.
