Last Updated on September 14, 2026 by Deon
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept rising against the US Dollar with USD/JPY going near low points even though there was more belief in Federal Reserve tightening and higher US short-term yields. According to OCBC strategist Christopher Wong, expectations about the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are now a reason why the Yen is rising higher.
Markets think there is a chance the BoJ will increase interest rates by 25 basis points later this week. Because of this people who invest are watching the banks statement and Governor Kazuo Uedas comments for hints about what the Japanese monetary policy will do next.
BoJ Guidance Becomes Crucial for the Yen
The Yens rise is interesting because the usual difference in interest rates is not helping the currency. US Treasury short-term yields have gone up along with belief in Fed actions, which usually helps USD/JPY.
Instead expectations for tighter BoJ policy are now the main focus.
Markets now think the BoJ will increase interest rates by 25 basis points. Since most of this change is already in prices traders might care more about what Governor Ueda says about steps than the rate decision itself.
If the message is more strict it could make people think there will be changes in policy and might help the Japanese Yen even more.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
USD/JPY was last at about 153.60 according to the OCBC analysis. The daily movement is still negative although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is getting closer to being too low.
The 153.00 level is a place for traders to watch. If the price stays under this area the pair might go lower to the big support near 152.20, which was the low in 2026.
On the side 155.00 is the first level to watch as a possible limit. This level is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the 2026 low to the high.
Above that the area around 156.70 could be another limit.
Yen Positioning Also Supports the Move
Another reason for the Yen strength is the positioning of traders. It is said that speculative positions have turned long JPY for the first time since February.
This change shows that traders are more sure about the Yens future.. When many traders are in the same position it can also mean a sudden change if the BoJ doesn’t say something more strict than people thought.
So investors might look closely at both the decision and the banks future message.
What Could Drive USD/JPY Next?
Further drops in USD/JPY might depend on a things. First the BoJ would need to keep talking about being strict and leave open the possibility of rate increases.
Second if the US Dollar gets weaker that could help the Yen more. A drop in US Treasury yields could also reduce support for the Dollar-Yen pair.
On the hand if the BoJ message is more cautious and US yields go up that could stop the Yen from going higher and might make USD/JPY go up again.
Key Levels to Watch
USD/JPY Level Technical Significance
156.70 Resistance
155.00 resistance
153.60 Current area
153.00 Initial support
152.20 2026 low and major support
These levels are important for traders to check when they look at the next move in USD/JPY.
Outlook for the Yen
The Japanese Yen has been moving stronger as the belief in BoJ policy changes grows. The coming BoJ decision is likely to be a moment for USD/JPY and JPY pairs.
Even though a rate increase is mostly expected the banks message could decide if the Yens rise continues. If Governor Ueda says something along with lower US yields and a weaker Dollar that could make USD/JPY drop more.
For now traders will watch the 153.00 support area and the BoJs guidance to see where the Yen is going next.
This article is, for purposes only and does not give investment advice. Currency markets have a lot of risk.
