Last Updated on September 14, 2026 by Deon
Silver prices are moving under pressure at the beginning of the week. The XAG/USD pair is staying near the $63.00 support level. The valuable metal is not doing well because the market expects the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Also a stronger US dollar and high oil prices are making things harder for silver.
Silver did not manage to keep the increase above the $65.00 level. After reaching about $65.30 on Friday the XAG/USD pair went down. Went under $64. This drop has made the term technical view look bad. Now sellers are watching the support area around $63.00.
Us CPI Supports Fed Rate Hike Bets
One main reason for the recent drop in silver is the change in the US policy on money.
The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was higher than people expected the core inflation part. Core CPI had the rise in four months during August. This makes people think the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates by 25 basis points in the meeting.
Higher interest rates usually make it hard for silver because the metal does not give interest. When the rates go up investors might prefer interest-bearing assets.
The better rate forecast has also helped the US dollar. Since silver is priced in US dollars a stronger dollar can make the metal more expensive for people in countries. This can lower the demand for silver.
Oil Prices Add to Precious Metal Pressure
Another thing affecting the market is the big rise in energy costs.
There are problems in the Middle East that make people worry about oil supplies. Disruptions in shipping areas have caused oil prices to go up. Brent crude is over $103. Getting close to its recent six-month high.
Higher oil prices can cause inflation worries. This might make central banks keep money policies longer. That creates another problem for metals.
For silver the mix of oil prices higher inflation expectations and more rate increase expectations is making things hard in the short term.
XAG/USD Tests $63 Support
Looking at the technical side the short-term picture for silver is not good. The XAG/USD pair is near the bottom of a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is around $63.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below the 50 line. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows red bars.
All these signs mean that the bearish movement is still happening.
The $63.00 level is very important because it is close to lows. According to the technical analysis the main support area runs from about $62.19 to $63.32. This area could decide if the falling continues or if buyers come back.
What Happens Below $63?
If the price drops below the $63 support area the selling might get worse. The next major level down is about $60.87, which was the low on August 6. If that level also does not work the Head and Shoulders pattern might become more important. Could lead to much lower prices.
The target for this pattern is below the low near $54.77.. This is just a technical guess, not a sure thing.
Traders will probably watch the price action around $63 before thinking a bigger drop is happening.
$65.30 Is the First Major Resistance
For the people who want silver to go up the first big challenge is around $65.30. This level was the high on Friday. Is where the latest rise was stopped. If the price goes back above $65.30 the immediate bearish setup might get weaker. This could encourage buyers to come
If XAG/USD breaks above this resistance clearly the focus could shift to the $68.00 level. The highs on September 3 and September 9 are above that. More gains could then bring the $71.12 level into view. That is the high from August 28.
US Dollar and Fed Remain Key Drivers
The Federal Reserve is going to be very important for the silver outlook this week.
If the officials say they need money rules to control inflation the US dollar and the yields on Treasury bonds could stay strong. That would likely keep the pressure on silver.
If there are any signs that the officialsre not worried about inflation or future rate increases the dollar could get weaker. This would help metals.
Silver traders should therefore keep an eye on the Fed announcement along with the US Treasury yields and the movements of the dollar.
Industrial Demand Offers a Longer-Term Cushion
Even though there is pressure now silver has sources of demand beyond just investing. The metal is used a lot in electronics, solar power and other industrial uses because it conducts electricity well. Industrial demand can affect the price of silver over time periods.
Economic conditions in markets like the United States, China and India can also change the demand. A stronger industrial economy could support silver when money policy makes things difficult for now.
In the short term the price movement is likely to be controlled by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar and overall risk feelings.
Silver Price Outlook
Silver is at an important technical point. The XAG/USD pair is near the $63.00 support level. The short-term chart still shows bearish movement. If the price stays below $63 it could go down to $60.87. Maybe even lower. On the hand if the price goes back above $65.30 the short-term view could improve. This might lead to prices going up to $68 and $71.12.
For now traders should watch how silver reacts to its levels and the changing expectations for US interest rates.
The next decision from the Federal Reserve could be the trigger, for the big move. Until then the $63 support and $65.30 resistance are the levels to watch for the XAG/USD pair.
