Last Updated on October 3, 2026 by Deon
The New Zealand Dollar came back against the US Dollar on Friday after a weaker than expected US jobs report made the US Dollar drop. NZD/USD was around 0.5610 going up by 0.12% when the FXStreet report was made.
This move happened after the September Nonfarm Payrolls data showed that the US economy added 29,000 jobs, much less than the market expected 90,000. Changes to jobs numbers also showed a weaker labor market.
However the New Zealand Dollars recovery is still not strong because of worry in New Zealand before the November 7 election.
US Jobs Data Weakens the Dollar
The September jobs report gave signs of a weaker labor market. US Nonfarm Payrolls went up by 29,000. August job growth was changed to 133,000 from 162,000 and July was changed to a loss of 10,000 jobs from the reported 21,000 gain. Combined changes for July and August took away 60,000 from employment gains.
The unemployment rate went up to 4.2%. The labor-force participation rate went up to 61.8%.
Wage growth showed another sign that inflation pressure is easing. Average hourly earnings went up 3% over the year less than the 3.2% that the market expected. The mix of job growth and slower wage increases added more pressure on the US Dollar.
Fed Rate Expectations Change
The bad jobs numbers also changed what people think about the Federal Reserves decision.
According to the CME FedWatch numbers reported by FXStreet the chance of a US rate increase in October went down to about 22% compared with 64% a week earlier. The chance of an increase in December stayed higher 67%.
The jobs report came after US PCE inflation data from a day before. Together these reports made people think more about whether the US economy’s slowing down.
The US Dollar Index went down 0.11% to about 101.90 after the jobs report came out.
For traders of NZD/USD changes in what the Federal Reserve’s expected to do can be very important because shifts in US interest rate expectations can affect Treasury yields and the demand for the dollar.
New Zealand Election Creates Uncertainty
While weaker US data has helped NZD/USD local developments are creating another source of worry for the New Zealand Dollar.
New Zealands general election is planned for November 7. Polls show a very close race. FXStreet reports that the chance of a government has led to questions about future economic plans.
One area getting attention is the Reserve Bank of New Zealands job. New Zealands Labour Party has said it would bring back a job for the central bank if it comes back into power.
Possible changes to the way the central bank makes decisions could therefore stay a factor for traders of NZD as the election comes closer.
NZD/USD Technical View
The technical setup is still weak even though there was a rise on Friday. On the chart NZD/USD is still below the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average keeping the overall near-term setup under pressure. The Relative Strength Index was 24.8, which puts the pair in over-sold territory.
The lower Bollinger Band near 0.5565 is support. A break below that level could mean pressure to the downside.
On the upside the Bollinger middle band near 0.5725 is the resistance. The 100-day SMA around 0.5810 and the upper Bollinger Band near 0.5885 are levels traders may watch.
Key NZD/USD Levels
Level Technical significance
0.5565 Immediate support
0.5610 trading area
0.5725 Initial resistance
0.5810 100-day SMA
0.5885 Upper Bollinger Band
NZD/USD Outlook
The most recent US jobs report gave some support to NZD/USD by making the dollar weaker and reducing the chance of an immediate increase in US interest rates. At the time the New Zealand election brings another local risk factor for the New Zealand Dollar.
Traders may therefore pay attention to whether NZD/USD can stay above the 0.5565 support area and move toward 0.5725. A drop below support would keep attention on the continuation of the bearish setup while a strong move above resistance would show stronger correction momentum.
For the few days US interest rate expectations Treasury yields, more US economic data and what happens with the New Zealand election are likely to keep being big factors, in how NZD/USD moves.
