Last Updated on February 3, 2026 by Deon
The Great Recalibration: Gold Stabilizes (for the Moment)
The early 2026 Gold Rush now has its first big meeting with reality. From the utter carnage witnessed on Friday—a day that will be remembered in market history as one of its most violent ”flushes”—the trading day on Tuesday, February 3, 2026 is all about stabilization.
The gold market is the most substantial asset on the face of the Earth currently, according to senior analyst Christopher Lewis. Following an intraday low near $4430 on Monday, the metal has made a visible bounce. But the big picture question still remains: Is this a new rally beginning here, or are we innocently witnessing what traders call a “dead cat bounce” before slipping back down again?
The Monday Changeup: Recognizing Value in the Wreckage
Early Monday morning felt like a complete capitulation. But as the price fell below $4,400, a wave of “value hunters” entered in.
The Recovery: From those lows, gold roared back toward the $4,700 range, making fleeting believers of the bulls that maybe we were through the other side of this “warsh shock.”
The Reality Check:There was no follow through – as the US session doors opened and futures volumes were maxxed out, it was goneetry.grecart. A little bit of negativity has returned flirting with the $4,500 level that suggests the market is not yet ready to “just forget” last week’s $1,000 drop from the high of $5,626.
Why the Bounce Feels Very Heavy
According to Christopher Lewis, bounce is great but the “vibe” in this market has changed from here.
Speculative Scarring: Friday’s 10 percent move likely took out many traders. That sort of trauma doesn’t just go away. There is a great deal of “overhead supply” — that is, people who bought into bitcoin at $5,000 and are now just looking for a bounce to $4,800 so they can get out with slightly less blood loss.
TechncialDamage: Multiple key short-term moving averages have been breached by Gold. Until it is capable of rallying and requiring a sustained hold above $4,850, technically the path of least resistance continues with Sideways to Down.
The “Warsh” Factor and the Way Forward
The market is still processing the effects of a Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve.
Wait and See: All eyes now on Friday’s NFP Traders are looking towards this Friday’s Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. Lewis says this information will be the “final arbiter”. A soft jobs report would stoke the gold bulls, while a strong report might embolden the dollar-loving bears.
The Verdict: Good Things Come to Those Who Wait
It’s the main cautionary trick to keep you from “catching a falling knife,” but also from missing a generational bottom. As Lewis presciently observed; So, the line in the sand for now is $4,400. If we remain above it, we likely have a few weeks of choppy consolidation ahead. If it breaks, a likely next stop would be the 200-day moving average in the vicinity of $4,000.
For those taking their lead from the charts, the message is straightforward: The “irrational” part of the rally is over. Now we have a classic value battle on our hands.
