Last Updated on October 19, 2026 by Deon
UK Jobs Data in Focus
The major event for Pound traders is the UK employment report that covers the three months ending in August.
Market expectations suggest the labour market may worsen. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to climb to 5.0% from 4.9% in the period. Average earnings, including bonuses are also expected to slow to 3.8% year on year from 3.9%.
If the labour‑market report is weaker expectations for a Bank of England policy may diminish and GBP/USD could fall. On the hand stronger employment figures or firmer wage growth could support the Pound by keeping interest‑rate expectations high.
Wage growth matters a lot because ongoing earnings pressure can fuel inflation. I notice traders will look closely at the jobs report for clues about where UK monetary policy might go.
UK Inflation Could Drive the Pound
The UK Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday and is expected to be the catalyst for GBP/USD this week.
Economists at Deutsche Bank expect inflation to speed up in September perhaps reaching the level of the year. They project headline CPI at 3.49% year on year and core inflation near 2.74%.
Services inflation is also expected to rise, with the measure projected around 3.71%.
If the data confirms price pressures traders could reduce expectations for easier Bank of England policy. That scenario may support the British Pound.
However if the inflation report is softer than expected the opposite effect could occur. Lower inflation could boost expectations for policy easing and perhaps create selling pressure on GBP/USD.
French Bond Yields Support the US Dollar
The US Dollar is getting some support from developments in France. Social protests linked to the cost‑of‑living situation have raised concerns about government borrowing costs.
10‑year bond yields remain high after rising sharply at the end of last week. The rise in market uncertainty has helped support the US Dollar adding another source of pressure on GBP/USD.
A stronger Dollar can make it harder for the Pound to keep rising especially if investors become more cautious about assets.
This means GBP/USD faces pressure from both sides: UK economic data could drive Pound volatility while broader market developments influence demand for the US Dollar.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook
From a perspective GBP/USD keeps a slightly bullish near‑term structure.
The pair trades above the 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3285. This EMA now acts as a dynamic support level.
Long as GBP/USD stays above 1.3285 buyers can keep some control over the short‑term trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 51 showing momentum. The reading is far from territory suggesting the pair is not showing extreme momentum.
However the technical picture is not strongly bullish because the pair stays near the middle of its range.
1.3372 Is Key Resistance
On the upside Friday’s high near 1.3372 is the major resistance level to watch.
A sustained break above 1.3372 could strengthen the setup and signal that buyers are gaining momentum. Traders may then look for the pair to set levels.
Failure to break this resistance however could keep GBP/USD rangebound. Lead traders to wait for the upcoming UK data before taking a stronger directional position.
The reaction to the employment and CPI releases could ultimately decide whether GBP/USD breaks higher or turns lower.
1.3285 and 1.3140 Are Supports
The first downside level stays the 20‑day EMA at 1.3285. A break below this area would weaken the bullish bias.
The next major support sits near 1.3140. A deeper decline toward this level would show that sellers have gained control of the pair.
For traders the area between 1.3285 and 1.3372 could become a short‑term range. A breakout from either side may give a signal about the next directional move.
GBP/USD Forecast
The GBP/USD outlook is likely to stay volatile as markets prepare for an UK economic calendar.
Employment data on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday could greatly affect expectations for the Bank of England. Stronger‑than‑expected data may support the Pound while weaker figures could increase pressure, on GBP/USD.
Technically the pair keeps a bullish tone as long as it stays above 1.3285.
If the pair breaks above 1.3372 the upside outlook will become stronger. If the pair falls below 1.3285 it could face losses toward 1.3140.
Until the key UK data comes out GBP/USD will likely trade sideways. Traders will watch closely both developments and broader US Dollar movements.
