Last Updated on September 15, 2026 by Deon
Brent Oil Outlook Becomes Optimistic
Brent crude oil is still facing pressure because of a higher risk from political issues as problems with energy systems in the Middle East are making people worry about the worlds supply of oil. The recent outlook from Rabobank suggests that the oil market might be stronger in the coming months. The bank has raised its predictions for both Brent and WTI.
Brent was being sold to $106 per barrel after it went above the important $100 mark on September 9. Rabobank now thinks that Brent will average $107 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 which is higher than its earlier estimate of $100. The bank also increased its 2027 estimate to $94 from $86.
This updated outlook is because it is more likely that the problems with supply might last longer than people thought at first.
Middle East Problems Help Raise Brent Prices
The main reason the oil market is stronger now is because of the problems with important energy systems in the Middle East. According to Rabobank analysts Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut down its East-West pipeline, which’s a major way to move oil without going through the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline can handle 7 million barrels per day so any long shutdown would be a big issue for the worlds supply of oil.
This situation has made the risk of oil prices more likely. Traders are watching what is happening with shipping and energy routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandab.
More problems could keep oil prices high. Might make prices go up even more.
Brent Might Try to Reach the $126 Again
One of the most important points in Rabobanks outlook is the chance that Brent could go back towards its yearly high near $126 per barrel.
The bank said that stockpiles at Yanbu could help Saudi Arabia keep sending out oil for a week.. If the pipeline problem goes on longer than that the effect on supply could be bigger.
A long disruption could make the physical oil market tighter. Push Brent up.
This doesn’t mean that a move to $126 is certain. Oil prices are very affected by what happens with politics how much oil is. How ships are moving.. The chance of another try at the yearly high has gone up if the supply problems keep going.
Important Brent Price Points to Keep an Eye On
Rabobank expects Brent to stay unpredictable with $70 to $75 seen as support and $95 to $100 as a major upper limit when things are normal.
Now that Brent is trading above $100 the market is working beyond that limit.
Brent Level Market Significance
$70-$75 support area
$95-$100 Important resistance and mental zone
$106 Recent area for buying and selling
$107 Rabobanks Q4 2026 estimate
$126 Possible return to yearly high
If Brent stays above $107 that could make the optimistic view stronger and bring the $126 area into focus. If it drops below $100 that could reduce some of the pressure for prices.
WTI Forecast Also Increased
Rabobank has also made its prediction for West Texas Intermediate crude more positive.
The bank now thinks WTI will be $103 per barrel in Q4 2026 up from its estimate. Its 2027 estimate has gone up to $88 from $82.
These changes show that the issues with oil supplies in the Middle East are not just affecting Brent. A long disruption to the flow of oil around the world could impact all the prices in the energy market.
Higher oil prices could also affect inflation the cost of moving things and what central banks expect to do.
Oil Prices Will Be Hard to Predict in the Future
Even though there is a positive view the oil market still depends a lot on what is happening in politics.
If more oil movement is stopped at Hormuz or Bab el-Mandab the market could quickly think there is a shortage. Any attacks that affect places where oil is sent like Yanbu or Fujairah could also make people more worried about the world having enough oil.
On the hand if things get better in the region or the broken systems are fixed some of the extra costs in oil prices could go down. This makes the risk from news important for traders right now.
What Traders Need to Watch
Traders should keep an eye on several things when looking at the next change in Brent:
Events involving oil systems in the Middle East.
How much oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
How many ships are going through the Bab el-Mandab route.
How long the Saudi pipeline problem lasts.
Changes in the amount of oil stored around the world.
Decisions made by OPEC+ about how much oil to produce.
Overall. What is expected with interest rates.
The mix of supply problems and strong political risks can cause changes in prices making it important to manage risk well.
Brent Outlook: More Optimistic but Still Very Sensitive to News
The latest Rabobank outlook makes Brent look more positive in the term. Its $107 Q4 2026 forecast shows that people think the risks with supply will keep prices higher than before. The bank also thinks Brent will be at $94 in 2027.
The biggest chance for prices to go up more is if there is a problem with Saudi systems or major routes where oil is sent. In that case Brent might try to reach the $126 high again.
Oil is still a market that responds to news. Traders should not think that high prices will keep going up. Any improvement in the supply situation could quickly take away the costs.
For now the important levels are $100 as a limit and $107 to $126 as a higher limit. What happens with the energy routes in the Middle East is likely to decide the big move.
This article is, for information only. Is not investment advice. Oil prices can be very unpredictable. Traders should do their own research and handle risk properly.
