Last Updated on February 12, 2026 by Deon
Inside the Reports: A Look Behind The Making
If you want to learn the truth about what the world’s largest banks believe about the price of gold don’t listen to their Gold Price Predictions in mainstream media, instead watch their actions with respect to COMEX Delivery Intentions. (Though most investors trade so-called “paper gold” — futures contracts that are settled in cash, not in bullion — the delivery report shows who is actually starting to take (or give away) the physical bars.)
There’s an interesting change to how the “Big Money” is positioning as of February 11, 2026.
The February Flood: 3.4 Million Ounces To Go
The February 2026 gold contract is looking like a heavyweight. Cumulative delivery notices this month have reached 33,959 contracts so far.
The Scale: Because each contract is good for 100 troy ounces, we are talking about 3,395,900 ounces of physical gold being jostled between vaults.
The Daily Pulse: A total of 176 new notices were issued on Tuesday alone. Even at prices hovering close to a record $5,000, the appetite for physical settlement hasn’t gone away.
The Sellers (Issuers)–Wells Fargo on Top
When a company “issues” one, it is handing over the gold. The biggest seller in the primary this week was Wells Fargo, which issued 170 contracts for delivery.
The Read: Banks are frequently “issuers” when their institutional clients want to take profits or they need to rebalance their own commercial inventories. That’s not the same thing as saying that they are “bearish”; it only means that they are the ones selling you liquidity when you want it.
The Buyers (Stoppers): Citi and JP Morgan Are Buying
Now on the other side of the trade, are Stoppers – those who “stop” this notice and become legal owner of the Gold.
Citigroup: Upped the ante this week with 45 cancellations.
JP Morgan: Steady Eddie, buying 28 contracts out of its own house account and adding another 6 for customers.
The Insight: When JP Morgan and Citi are willing to buy at $5,000, they are signaling that this is a “fair” price — not like the FOMO (fear of missing out) top we reached in 2017 when Bitcoin hit nearly $20,000. Instead of the money, they are choosing to hold the metal.
Why Should You Care?
For the lay investor, this report is a “Reality Check” on the market:
Price Support: If paper prices were “fake” or too high, these big banks would not be buying at these levels. Physical delivery is an essential base.
Vault Stress: Watching as the “Registered” gold (Gold for sale) vs. the “Eligible” gold (gold being stored). This will put pressure on available supply and, therefore be expected to push up the physical premiums.
Bottom Line: In the midst of everyday price volatility, what the headlines do not cover is that the world’s largest financial institutions remain very interested in owning right now physical. In the fight between “Paper Gold” and “Real Gold,” real gold is currently winning.
Outlook: Eyes on Inflation
The near-term outlook for XAU/USD now will depend on tomorrow’s US CPI (Inflation) release. Although the jobs market has continued to firm, softer inflation material could give Gold the kick in the pants necessary for it clear the $5,100 resistance and move vigorously towards all-time highs.
