Last Updated on February 9, 2026 by Deon
Gold (XAU/USD) has reentered the $5,000 vicinity again but as of late continues to behave more like a guest who’s hesitant to shed their coat. Although it’s appreciating for a second consecutive month, the price “stalls” due to the difficulty in establishing steady ground above this huge psychological point.
‘And despite the wobble, this bull remains very much raging to fruition. Buyers continue to protect the support at $4,960 and throwing down their helmets by drawing a line in the sand that says “Not today” to the bears.
The Warsh Factor and a Weak Dollar
The secret sauce powering gold’s new resilience? A softening U.S. Dollar.
The Dollar’s Decline: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been weakening, particularly after employment data released last week suggested that the American labor market may be weaker than we imagined.
Fed Pivot Reborn: As the labor market shows some signs of breaking, attention has turned back to Federal Reserve rate cuts. Rocket fuel for gold: Falling rates are like rocket fuel for gold because the metal doesn’t pay interest — so it becomes more appealing as yields on cash start to drop.
Chart Talk: Is $5,340 Where We’re Headed?
For technical analysts, the current price pattern is reminiscent of your classic “breath-catcher” notion that suggests a larger move ahead. Some observers see a harmonic pattern called the “C-D leg” indicating that if gold manages to cross decisively at $5,000–$5,100 resistance, its next major target may well be $5,340.
Key Technical Indicators:
Bullish Momentum: The MACD is back in the green and the RSI is above 50, indicating the market is favoring buyers.
Support Levels: Watch for the 21-day SMA (approximately $4,873) and the 100-period SMA ($4,950). So long as gold remains above these levels, a “buy-the-dip” mentality is likely to prevail.
Why Investors Aren’t Fleeing
As a new Fed Chair on the horizon and a plethora of talk about �reflation trades� continue, qualified leadership (KEVIN WARSH)�golden hasn�t lost its luster.
Central Bank Demand: China’s central bank just announced its 15th month of gold purchases in a row. Retail investors tend to follow when the big dogs keep buying.
Safe Haven Logic: With tension in the Middle East and continued uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy, gold continues to be the world’s favorite “insurance policy.”
The Bottom Line
Gold is in a wait-and-see phase now. We shall see later this week if the critical CPI and Jobs data comes through to form the spark that lights a surge above $5,100 — or inflicts another reality check in a re-test towards $4,800. For the moment, it’s still on the way up, but it’s been getting bumpy.
