Get Your Seat Belts Ready: Here’s Why Gold’s Ride To $5,400 Might Get Bumpy

Last Updated on February 4, 2026 by Deon

If you’ve been watching the gold markets of late, you may feel a bit of whiplash. We’re at record numbers one day, and the next we’re seeing significant pullbacks.” This “rollercoaster” phase isn’t over yet, going by a recent analysis by UOB.

Expecting – so long as you’re taking a longer term view, that is – “a bright future” for gold in the hangover of COVID-19, Heng Koon How, Head of Markets Strategy at UOB warns that short-term reality would likely be summed up by a word: volatility.

Clearing the “Speculative Fog”

Why is the market so jumpy? It all amounts to speculation, Heng said. When the price of gold takes off, it brings a horde of fast-moving traders pining for a quick buck. These speculative positions need to be cleared out before the market can establish a “steady floor.”

Think of it as the storm clearing — after that, you need a little time for things to calm down and for water to smooth out so that you can see which path lies before you.

The Road Ahead: UOB’s Price Targets for 2026

Even with the current turmoil, UOB is still extremely bullish on where gold wraps up the year. They’ve sketched out a gradually ascending “staircase” recovery for the metal in 2026:

PeriodTarget Price (Per Ounce)Q1 (Current)$4,800Q2$5,000Q3$5,200Q4$5,400

At present, spot gold is trading at $5,075.93 and has already exceed Q1 target. This reflects the belief that even though this may be a volatile ride, there’s still plenty of underlying momentum pushing higher.

What This Means for Investors

For those either holding gold or mulling an entry, the message from experts is loud and clear: patience is a virtue. Short-term price movements can be scary, but if the macroeconomic drivers — like demand from central banks and overall anxiety levels worldwide — remain the same, these dips are often just noise in a much larger upward trend.

“Caution is warranted about the risks to more near-term volatility,” Heng cautions. In other words, don’t let a tough day in the markets get in the way of your long-term forecast.

The Bottom Line

Gold Is In Transition Phase. We are pulling out of the “hype” phase from all time highs, back into the market having to prove itself. If UOB is right, then the “Golden Vein” remains in place — you just may need a strong stomach to manage through what looks like will be an unpleasant couple of months.