Last Updated on August 28, 2026 by Deon
Gold prices stayed steady on Friday with XAU/USD staying above the $4,600 level. Traders were waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The precious metal did not make progress after failing to keep its earlier push toward $4,700. Still the overall technical picture for Gold remained positive.
At the time of this analysis Gold was trading near $4,599. The market seemed to be settling into a consolidation phase after a move higher earlier in the week. Investors were being careful. Their focus was on what the Federal Reserve might say about monetary policy.
Gold Price Consolidates Above Key Support
The rally in Gold prices ran into resistance around $4,700 early in the week.. The drop that followed was small. That suggests buyers were still stepping in at prices.
Now the $4,600 area has become a short-term level for XAU/USD. If the price holds above it the bullish structure could stay intact.. If it breaks below for an extended period downward pressure may increase.
Gold traders are balancing two forces. On one hand inflation remains high. There is also a chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates tighter. That could strengthen the US Dollar. Put pressure on Gold prices.
On the hand uncertainty in the economy and financial markets continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. This ongoing uncertainty helps support the metal.
Because of these signals XAU/USD has been moving within a narrow range.
All Eyes on Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
The main event for Gold traders is the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Markets are watching closely to see what he says about inflation, interest rates and the overall direction of US policy. Recent remarks from Fed officials have shown they remain concerned about inflation. They have suggested more action might be needed to bring price increases back toward the banks goal.
Any hint that the Federal Reserve plans to keep a policy stance could boost the US Dollar. That would likely weigh on Gold prices.
If Warsh speaks in a more cautious tone or expresses worries about economic growth the US Dollar could lose strength. A weaker Dollar could help Gold recover. Possibly move toward recent highs.
Since Gold does not pay interest shifts in interest-rate expectations can strongly affect its value. Higher rates usually raise the cost of holding Gold. Lower rates or the expectation of policy tend to support Gold.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook Remains Bullish
From a technical perspective the outlook for Gold is still positive as long as XAU/USD stays above key long-term support levels.
According to the analysis Gold is well above its 200-day Simple Moving Average, which sits near $4,525. This shows that the larger upward trend is still active. Momentum indicators also point to a bias.
The Relative Strength Index has come down from overbought zones. Still stays in positive territory. Meanwhile the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator continues to show momentum.
These signals suggest the recent pullback may just be a pause in the uptrend, not a full reversal.
Key Gold Price Levels to Watch
Several important support and resistance levels could decide the big move in XAU/USD.
Support Levels
The first key support area is around $4,590. Far Gold has held above this zone. That has helped reduce pressure.
If sellers push the price below this level the next major support could appear near the 200-day SMA, around $4,525 to $4,527.
A deeper decline might then attract attention to the $4,450 level. That is another technical support zone.
Resistance Levels
On the upside the first major resistance is still near $4,700. That is where Gold previously failed to break through.
A successful breakout above that level could fuel buying interest. It could open the door to $4,773 and eventually to the peak near $4,900.
For now traders are watching whether XAU/USD can gather strength to challenge the $4,700 level again.
US Dollar and Fed Policy Could Drive the Next Move
The connection between Gold and the US Dollar remains one of the important things for the market.
A stronger US Dollar makes Gold more expensive for buyers using currencies. That often reduces demand. A weaker Dollar tends to support XAU/USD.
So the reaction to Kevin Warsh’s speech could be especially important. If his words strengthen expectations of interest rates the Dollar could rise. That would likely lead to selling in Gold.
Alternatively a hawkish message could weaken the Dollar. That could allow Gold to regain strength and move higher.
Investors will also keep an eye on US economic data and labor market reports. Those updates may influence how people view actions by the Federal Reserve.
Gold Price Forecast: What Happens
The short-term forecast for Gold remains cautiously bullish. This is true long as XAU/USD stays above the $4,590 support and more importantly the 200-day SMA near $4,525.
The market is currently in a consolidation phase after the attempt to move past $4,700. That means the next big move may depend largely on how traders respond to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
A positive reaction could push Gold back toward $4,700 and higher resistance areas. If the US Dollar strengthens and the Federal Reserve takes a more hawkish tone Gold could fall deeper possibly toward $4,525 or even $4,450. Now the broader trend is still up. Traders should expect more volatility as the market reacts to Fed news.
