Last Updated on July 7, 2026 by Deon
Gold prices went down on Tuesday. This happened because investors were worried about inflation going up due to oil prices and problems in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Dollar did not move much after some weak economic data came out from the United States. When Treasury yields went up it made gold less attractive to investors.
Gold is in a spot right now. Some people think the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates much which is good for gold.. Others are worried that higher energy prices will keep inflation high for a long time. Investors are waiting to see what the Federal Reserve says in their meeting minutes. Until then gold prices are under pressure.
Why Gold Is Falling
The main reason gold is falling is because US Treasury yields are going up again.
Oil prices are higher because of problems in the Strait of Hormuz. People are worried that this will disrupt energy supplies and make inflation worse. When inflation goes up investors want returns on their investments. This makes gold less appealing because it does not earn interest.
Softer Dollar Provides Limited Support
Usually when the US Dollar is weak it helps gold. This is because gold becomes cheaper for people using currencies.
The weak Dollar is not helping gold much right now. The problem is that higher Treasury yields and inflation worries are outweighing any benefits from a Dollar.
People think the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates much so the Dollar is not getting too strong. This is preventing prices from falling too much but it is also not making them go up.
Federal Reserve Minutes Remain the Key Catalyst
Investors are now waiting to see what the Federal Reserve says in their meeting minutes.
Because employment data was weak people think the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates much this year. The meeting minutes might give us information about what policymakers are thinking. If they are worried about inflation they might raise interest rates more which would hurt gold.
If they sound more optimistic gold prices might go up.
Technical Outlook for Gold (XAU/USD)
The technical picture for gold is still cautious. There are some signs that things are getting better. We need to be careful.
Immediate Support
$4,100
$4,000 is a important level
Channel support is near $3,845
$4,295
The 200-day Simple Moving Average is near $4,490
$4,570 is a resistance level
Gold is still below its long-term average and in a downward trend. Even though momentum is a little better buyers need to push prices above resistance levels for a stronger recovery.
Market Outlook
Several things will affect prices in the coming days:
Federal Reserve meeting minutes
US Treasury yield movements
What happens in the Strait of Hormuz
Oil price volatility
Upcoming US inflation and economic data
If there are more problems, in the world people might buy more gold as a safe investment.. If inflation stays high it could keep bond yields high and limit golds upside.
