Last Updated on February 12, 2026 by Deon
Gold Trades in a Tight Range
Gold was steady on Thursday, holding above the key $5,000 level as investors balanced stronger US economic data with growing geopolitical risks. XAU/USD is trading close to $5,060 at the time of writing, consolidating the week in a range above $5,000 and below $5,100.
The lack of direction mirrors a broad sense of confusion in the market, with traders wanting to see more definitive signs on interest rates and broader global developments.
U.S. Jobs Data Allays Rate-Cut Fears
The latest numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics demonstrated there still is a little fight left in the American job market. Nonfarm Payrolls increased 130,000 in January smashing other estimates of 70,000 and the best since late 2024.
At the same time, unemployment dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%, a sign of enduring strength in the labor market.
These numbers have dashed hopes for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. That will keep borrowing costs higher for longer, now that the economy is still humming along.
What Higher Rates Mean for Gold
Gold does not pay interest, so it tends to find itself in a tough spot when rates remain high. Some investors also abandon precious metals when common alternatives — like bonds and savings accounts — pay higher interest.
As a result, the robust jobs report has posed mild pressure on gold prices and gravitated them further from higher levels at least in the near term.
But, that pressure has been helped in-part by USD and bond market weakness.
Gold Prices Held Up By Dollar Weakness
The USD didn’t manage to gather a lot of strength regardless of the strong employment figures. The Dollar Index (DXY) was around 96.80, close to a one-week low.
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, helping to support demand and prevent a rapid fall in prices. This has been essential for gold to stay above the current levels. Fed Officials’ Comments Suggest Caution on Rate Cut The recent comments of the Federal Reserve officials have shown that the “wait-and-see” stance is also likely to be upheld. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid pointed out that reducing the rate too early could lead to the prolongation of high inflation. He also argued that tight policy should be maintained as long as the inflation rate is close to 3%. In the meantime, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested that the current rates were close to being neutral and were, therefore, not stifling the economy. She added that they saw no reason to change the policy in the close future. Altogether, these statements imply that the central bank would be cautious and reluctant to go for the rate cut. Markets Still Bet on the Cuts for Later This Year Despite the robust data released in the recent weeks, the markets are still betting on the rate cuts later this year. According to the futures pricing, the investors remain convinced that there would be an easing worth 50 basis points in 2026. The first rate cut could be expected to lie inside the June – July frame. Meanwhile, the traders are eagerly awaiting the further clues that might be provided by the upcoming inflation data, including the U.S. Consumer Price Index data. Geopolitics Adding to the Safe-Haven Demand Besides the economic considerations, the politics are also affecting the gold prices. In particular, the U.S.-Iran tensions are increasing. The sources suggest that the U.S. might send more troops to the Middle East should the talks on Iran’s nuclear program collapse. Such actions raise uncertainty and risk in the financial markets, with investors relying on gold more during these times. It is positive for the prices. Near-Term Top-Down Considerations For Now Given the combination of the contradictory economic signs on the indicator side and the geopolitical dynamics, gold is more likely to stay at the consolidation stage.
On one hand, waning expectations for rate cuts in early 2020 cap upside. By contrast, trade tensions and a weaker dollar are two big reasons to feel bullish on the other.
Therefore, we won’t see any definite price action in either direction until new evidence or an external catalyst changes market sentiment.
Final Word: Trading Lull, Awaiting a Signal Markets are waiting for direction.
The current steadiness in gold is indicative of a market waiting and watching. Strong economic data is being weighed against increasing geopolitical risks by investors.
The next week will see inflation data, Fed cues and global events shaping gold’s move to the upside or downside. Until then we can probably expect the precious metals market to trade cautiously rather than not trading at all.
