The $5,000 Tug-of-War: Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout or a Pullback?

Last Updated on February 10, 2026 by Deon

The “Warsh” Repricing: Following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, markets are still adjusting to a potentially more disciplined, “hawkish” Federal Reserve.

The Bottom Line

Today’s 0.8% dip to $5,017 is less of a “crash” and more of a “breather.” The market is essentially in a waiting room, looking for the next headline to decide whether gold stays a $5,000 asset or charges toward the $5,500 targets seen in recent forecasts.gains—which naturally pulls the price back.

According to Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone, gold is now entering a “consolidation pattern.” This means the market is moving sideways, trying to decide if the $5,000 level will be its new permanent floor or just a temporary peak.

The Support Levels: If gold slips below $5,000, analysts are keeping a close eye on $4,800 and $4,630. These are the “safety nets” where buyers are expected to step back in.

2. The “Macro-Crescendo”: Three Events to Watch

The current sideways trend isn’t expected to last long. The market is bracing for a “data deluge” later this week that could act as a catalyst for the next big move.

U.S. Inflation (CPI): Due this Friday, February 13. If inflation remains “sticky” or higher than expected, it might cool off hopes for a June rate cut, which could weigh on gold.
The Labor Market (NFP): Re-scheduled jobs data will show if the U.S. economy is finally cooling or still running too hot.
The Iran Diplomacy Factor: High-stakes indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in Muscat have reopened. Any breakthrough in these nuclear negotiations could reduce the “geopolitical risk premium” that has been propping up gold prices.

3. Why Gold Still Has “Fans”

Despite the minor dip today, the long-term case for gold remains robust. Several structural “pillars” are keeping the price from a total collapse:

Central Bank Buying: Large institutions continue to diversify away from the dollar, treating gold as a “sanction-proof” anchor.
Dollar Weakness: Reports that major players like China are reducing their U.S. Treasury exposure have kept a lid on the

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