Last Updated on January 27, 2026 by Deon
Let’s be honest: if you had told anyone a few years ago that gold would be comfortably sitting above $5,100, they probably would’ve laughed. But here we are in January 2026, and the “yellow metal” is no longer just a fallback for nervous investors—it’s becoming the centerpiece of the global market.
The big news this week isn’t just the price tag; it’s that TD Securities just ripped up their old playbook. They didn’t just nudge their forecast up—they launched it into a different orbit.
The $600 Jump: A Reality Check
In the world of big banks, an “adjustment” usually means a few dollars here or there. But TD Securities just raised its 2026 average forecast by a staggering $619, bringing their new target to $4,831 per ounce.
Even wilder? They think we could see a peak of $5,400 in the next few months. When a major institution makes a move that aggressive, it tells you one thing: the fundamental “floor” of the market has shifted. We aren’t just in a rally; we’re in a total rebasing of what gold is actually worth in a messy world.
It’s Not Just About the Gold Bar
What’s interesting is that this isn’t a “gold-only” story. TD Securities is turning green across the board for almost every major commodity. They’ve upgraded their outlook for:
- The “Sidekicks”: Silver and Platinum are expected to draft off gold’s success.
- The Builders: Copper and Aluminium are seeing fresh optimism as the world continues its massive push into green tech.
- The Essentials: Even Natural Gas is looking at a much brighter 2026.
Basically, the bank is betting that the era of “cheap stuff” is over.
Why the Rush? (The “Human” Factors)
Numbers are great, but they don’t move on their own. People move them. And right now, people are making moves for three very relatable reasons:
1. The World Feels “Unpredictable”
Whether it’s the bizarre diplomatic tug-of-war over Greenland or the stalled peace talks in Abu Dhabi, there’s a general sense that the old “rules” of global alliances are being rewritten. When the news feels like a thriller novel, people buy gold to get a good night’s sleep.
2. Central Banks are Playing the Long Game
It’s not just “gold bugs” buying in. Central banks in China, India, and Poland are on a massive shopping spree. They’re diversifying away from the dollar not because they have to, but because they want a safety net that doesn’t depend on another country’s politics.
3. The Dollar’s “Reputation” Hit
With the U.S. tossing around threats of 100% tariffs on close neighbors like Canada, the Greenback is having a rough start to 2026. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker, more volatile dollar is like pouring rocket fuel on gold prices.
The Bottom Line
When you see a forecast jump by $600, it’s a sign to pay attention. We’re moving past the era where $2,000 gold was “expensive.” In this new landscape, $5,000 is starting to look like the new baseline.
There will be dips, and there will be pullbacks—that’s just how markets breathe. But the momentum? It’s clearly headed for the rafters.
